The Good, the Bad, and the Peloton
(Peloton Q3 FY21 Earnings Review)
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A lot has happened at Peloton since I last wrote about them back in February 2021.
We witnessed a spectacular drawn-out decline in the share price, from peaks of ~$150 all the way down to lows of $82 per share.
This was no doubt assisted by the cumbersome manner in which management initially reacted to the mass recall of their Peloton Treads after some misfortunate incidents surfaced relating to the safety of that machinery.
In preparation for this post, I digested the Q3 earnings report, the Q3 earnings call (May 6th), the JP Morgan Global Tech Conference (May 25th), and the Bank of America Global Tech Conference (June 8th).
This piece is part of the ‘personal equity research’ segment of this publication, where I share my notes on the companies that I hold in my PA.
Key Takeaways from Q3 Earnings & Beyond:
The business continues to make impressive strides, despite the fact many assume it has a “fad” status. That could still be true.
The Tread recall represented a buying opportunity and was largely blown out of proportion.
New US Factory set to come into the fold in 2023.
New Market (Australia) now live. Long runways there.
Now that OTD times have fallen back to pre-covid norms, the team are expected to ramp up marketing spend now that it makes more sense to do so.
Peloton will be producing Bikes from the Precor facilities by the end of the year.
I believe new hardware may be coming in FY22.
I would not be surprised to see Peloton raise capital (equity or debt) in FY22. More likely debt.
For context, Peloton is currently ~2.5% of my personal account.
Peloton Q3 FY21 Key Highlights
There was certainly a lot to unpack upon my revisiting of Peloton.
After all of the supply chain issues of the last few quarters, a customer can now purchase a Peloton Bike (for $49 p/m) and have it delivered within a week or two. OTD has fallen dramatically for their flagship product.
The Bike + has also recovered with respect to OTD times, now cited to be within 1 to 3 weeks. Jill Woodworth (CFO) confirmed this during the Bank of America Global Tech Conference on June 8th.
The $100 million investment in expedited shipping has certainly proved to be a worthwhile expenditure.
Revenues for the quarter came in at $1.26 billion (+141% YoY) with $1.02 billion in connected fitness revenues (+140% YoY) and $239.4 million in subscription revenue (+144% YoY). Total aggregated revenue came in at ~$160 million above the $1.1 billion guidance set last quarter for a beat of ~14.5%.
That is impressive, but it’s worth noting the significant beat is related to the unexpected pull forward of deferred sales after the company’s $100 million shipping investment. Jill stated that this investment “paid off a little bit better than we had expected, and it ended up being a little more weighted to Q3 than Q4.”
As a result, the Q4 revenue guidance is set sequentially lower, at $915 million on account of those sales being pulled forward earlier than anticipated.
Should the company meet this sales target, then Peloton will generate $4 billion in total revenues for FY21, for a 120% YoY comp.
Consolidated gross margins (35.25%) continues to slip (down 1,160 Bps YoY) as a result of the pressure on the company’s largest revenue driver (connected fitness) continuing to see margin compression (28.4%). This, almost 1,600 bps, contraction is the result of those non-recurring investments towards shipping the Bike and Bike +, as well as the price drop of the Bike model last year.
The shipping costs, which are included as the cost of revenue, should be transitory, given that they were a one-time investment to reduce OTD times. The narrative would be such that subscription revenues eventually drive gross margins higher as they become a larger piece of the pie.
The reality is quite different, however.
If we take the trailing twelve months in sales, for instance, we will see that connected fitness has generated $2.98 billion, whilst subscription has generated $711.8 million.
That’s a YoY growth rate of 163% and 135% respectively.
Connected fitness is growing faster than subscription over that period. As such, the segment continues to hold that ~80%+ share of the sales.
So, naturally, with connected fitness contributing 80% of the revenues, their gross margin leaves the biggest mark on the aggregated gross margin for the business. In Q3, connected fitness accounted for ~65% of the total $445 million in gross profit.
So, the narrative of subscriptions assisting the total gross margin is nice, but I don’t see how it comes to fruition anytime soon. I am talking for ~2 to 3 years here.
The core business is still centred around connected fitness. As impressive as the growth of their digital subscriber base has been (now reaching 891,000 subs) the bulk of Peloton’s sales and demand, as well as resources, all originate from or are geared towards their connected fitness business.
The digital subscription offering is run at breakeven to act as a customer acquisition tool.
Now totalling 2.08 million subscriptions (100,000 above Q3 guidance), the Q3 connected fitness subscriptions were also a benefactor of the pull forward in sales during the quarter.
Net adds of over 414,000 were aided by the low average net monthly connected fitness churn of 0.31%, the best Peloton has seen in 6 years.
These record churn rates are the result of heightened engagement over the quarter, with 26 average monthly workouts per sub, an all-time high.
Foley has stated in the past that he has grand dreams of 100 million connected fitness subscribers in the future.
To push on that, Peloton has been pivoting towards their tread models (more on the controversy later). These pieces of machinery represent the number one most popular at-home fitness equipment globally. That’s a huge opportunity.
With well over 180 million global gym members, Jill suggests that Peloton’s four current markets (US, UK, Germany, Canada) represent around 90 million of those customers. This is before we count their latest market, Australia.
I have a gym membership, but I only use it for treadmills.
I would imagine there are a lot of other potential converts, as well as millions more who do not actively go to a gym (for whatever reason), who would be interested in a tread.
Before I get too far off my point, I want to say that it’s clear Peloton are focussing on increasing their hardware portfolio.
The tread is naturally going to be a lower-margin product, as backed up by management comments.
With the tread expected to “be a meaningful portion of fiscal '22” (according to Jill), we can expect the revenue composition of the tread to bring down gross margins further, or at least offset any upside from digital or the easing of one-time transport costs.
“If you go back in history to the Bike, when we first launched our Bike 5, 6 years ago, right, in meaningful quantity, let's say, on an index basis, it cost us $1 to make a bike. It now costs us $0.40, right? And the same goes for any new product, right? It's going to take us a while to get cost efficiencies.
And so the same goes for the Tread. So the Tread is certainly going to have inefficiencies on 2 parts of the spectrum. One, it's going to carry a lower gross margin than our Bike portfolio. But again, I have a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to take costs out over time. And then two, right, when you launch a new product, your media spend is going to be less efficient, right?” - Jill Woodworth, Bank of America Tech Conference
She later followed up by suggesting she feels the tread could be the largest selling SKU within a few years. This will undoubtedly have a prolonged negative impact on consolidated gross margin, which should eventually be overturned as the learnings and economies of scale enable them to deliver the treads at a lower cost.
This took several years for the original bike, and we saw the impact on gross margin after Peloton launched the new Bike + model in tandem with a reduction in sale price on the original Bike model.
Jill states, probably rightly so, that they are more focussed on gross profit dollars, rather than the gross margin of the connected fitness unit.
“But again, what we care about is gross profit margin dollars offsetting our marketing spend and less so the blended gross profit margin in Connected Fitness. It's the dollars we care about.” - Jill Woodworth, Bank of America Tech Conference
I think this is the best way to look at it.
Especially considering the fact that this hardware cycle is likely going to repeat itself numerous times are Peloton expand from Bikes and Treads into new equipment.
There is a lot of speculation surrounding what hardware category will be tackled next. I have had some investors, with inside sources, suggest to me that it will be some form of an elliptical machine, perhaps a rower.
John Foley (CEO) noted during the Q3 earnings call that the FY22 roadmap includes “new hardware, software features, languages and content, and all the goal of providing the most comprehensive connected fitness and Digital membership experiences in the world and driving ever-increasing engagement among our members.”
Peloton has already got to work on the language front, hiring Mariana Fernández as their first Spanish-speaking instructor. Obviously, Spanish is a huge language and is spoken on almost every continent. More of this to come I suspect.
Jill later stated the following in the JP Morgan Conference a few weeks after the call:
“We always have said that to win in home fitness, we need to win in cardio, which we will do with the bike and the tread, and we need to win in strength. And so what I -- what we see in strength is really an opportunity if you look at the platform that we've created with the bike and the tread is to reimagine home fitness as it relates to strength as well. And we know that strength training is a massive TAM opportunity. In fact, more people actually do strength training at home than cardio. And certainly, there are products that some competitors have on the market that are great.
It actually is a much more fragmented market. And you might see us try multiple different things, right, to try to capture the biggest TAM”
A month or so later, at the Bank of America conference, Jill continued to state:
“Strength as well is something I know we've alluded to a lot. It is a massive opportunity. It is something that people have done at home for decades. And so that is a category that you will see us dip our toe in even more than we do today with all the great improvements that we've made to our Strength content over the course of the last several months.”
So the product pipeline appears to have another (potentially strength-centric) hardware line coming within the next 12-15 months. Possibly sooner.
To my earlier point, the initial negative margin impact, and subsequent gradual expansion, will likely play out similarly with any new hardware that comes to market.
So, to conclude that lengthy ramble, I don’t think subscription gross margin is going to have much of an influence on the current status quo for the next year or two.
The primary upside in gross margin, that I can identify, stems from the reduction in those one-time transport costs, the gradual economies of scale from Tread product growth and additional capacity through Precor facilities, and modest subscription margin contribution.
As Jill noted, it is probably more conducive to focus on gross profit dollars, as opposed to consolidated margin, for the time being. A lot of flux going on there as Peloton continue to scale globally and across new categories.
A lot of this flux can be considered transitory. Next quarter, Peloton is guiding for a similar gross margin.
The operating margin was back into negative ($14 million) after three sequential quarters of profitability. However, it’s worth remembering that a great deal of marketing expense was halted during FY21, in tandem with the surplus in demand for Peloton hardware and digital.
Peloton shifted their resources towards ensuring their supply chain was not congested, including their $100 million in expedited shipping investment.
The positive operating margin was also expected to be somewhat temporary.
The next quarter should also see operating losses, as the planned return of marketing spend is to be weighted heavily towards Q4 as a result of the shift in the timing of media spend.
“We have ramped media investments in recent weeks, coinciding with our greatly improved order-to-delivery outlook. After a long period of little-to-no marketing activity, we are very eager to build on our connected fitness leadership position. And this is particularly important as our demographic profile of our membership base continues to broaden.” - Jill Woodworth, Q3 Earnings Call
Given the lower revenue estimate for Q4 and the increased operational spend expected from all facets of the operations, this should come as no surprise.
Peloton is still building, and the benefits of scale come from size, obviously.
The bull case would see Peloton get to a pivotal point whereby their leverage on digital subscriptions and new markets can be fully utilised. In such a way that they can begin to turn a consistent operating profit.
Some small signs of that are showing today, but I doubt that operating margins are a huge focus for management at this stage.
Jill noted that the typical 10% conversion rate of the digital sub to paid connected fitness customer now looked more like 20% in FY21. That’s a huge statement.
“Trends suggest our new Digital cohorts will likely upgrade to connected fitness membership at a significantly higher rate than the 10% figure we've discussed in the past. As a testament to this progress, we're now seeing over 20% of our Digital subscribers ultimately upgrade to connected fitness, and that number continues to increase. As our Digital membership base grows, we expect our improving upgrade rates to become an increasingly large driver of our connected fitness sales.”
The digital side of the business is a great lead generator for connected fitness subs. They pay a small fee, they get great digital content, and it makes them more likely to upgrade to a hardware subscription. At least, in theory.
Then, at the JP Morgan Conference, Jill suggested that “the latest I saw was that for every bike we placed in a hotel, we sold at least 7 bikes to a consumer as a result of that.” She was referring to the potential of Precor here, and the eventual dispersion of Peloton hardware across more commercial business properties like hotels, gyms, saunas, corporate wellness programs, and so on.
So these news ‘sales channels’ could prove to be highly effective in converting new customers into connected fitness subscribers in the future.
I think that the team, the R&D experience, the connections to sales channels, and the global coverage that the Precor acquisition gave Peloton is underappreciated.
The below map (H/T to Bob Treemore) shows the global coverage of Peloton (red) and Precor (blue). Australia should now be red too.
Just this week Peloton launched the Peloton digital app in Australia, opting to offer a 90-day free trial and grow the digital business before stamping down on the hardware push. Management is clearly trying different approaches when opening entering new markets.
After the successful launch of hardware in the UK and German markets, Peloton decided to start with the app first in Australia to grow brand recognition. This is also likely a decision to soothe OTD times and supply chain efficiency too.
Australia represents another 3.3 million households (within TAM, as there are over 7 million households in the country), and are a country with a long history of fitness fanatics.
“As we looked at and did research on our purchase intent and awareness in Australia, Peloton actually, without any marketing in-country, has had both high awareness and purchase intent relatively. And Australians, we know, love global brands.” - Jill Woodworth, Bank of America Tech Conference
After an initial period of the app-first approach, the company will begin to distribute the Bike models through their 3 PLs in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane.
So now Peloton has 5 core markets (US, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia) and is targeting 1 to 2 new markets every year. At the Bank of America Conference (in June) Jill noted that we will see Pleoton “announce new markets over the course of the next several quarters.”
The international business is growing at a faster rate than the US business but only accounted for 7.5% of total sales in Q3 (UK and Germany).
As Peloton continue to enter into new markets, they roll over those learnings from previous entries, and tap into a new pool of potential customers to scale the business, both digitally and from the hardware point of view.
So, whilst hardware sales might slow down in the US, and other countries as the initial heightened demand wanes, they have new pockets of growth there for a considerable number of years.
And this is really just me considering Bike sales. This is before factoring in Tread, and any other hardware they eventually launch.
In short, Peloton is still scaling, and scaling companies often grow at the expense of earnings.
The Tread Incident
The Tread recalls were two-fold.
So, first, the Tread (lower-priced version) was originally recalled due to some manufacturing issues. There were some issues with the screws that attached the console to the tread.
These were launched in the UK (December) and Canada (February) with a May launch expected in the US. Peloton is expected to re-launch in Canada and UK in July, with a US launch expected later in the summer.
This took place (and was overshadowed) at the same time as the Tread+ recall, which was far more serious.
The Tread+ model was recalled after a series of complaints to the CPSC (US Consumer Product Safety Commission) with regards to the belt on the treads sucking up people/animals under the hardware. There was a lack of a protective guard behind the tread to prevent that from happening.
Obviously, that’s tragic, and there were deaths.
However, this is not a new phenomenon with treadmills.
This fix will probably take a lot more time. Peloton did implement PIN codes shortly after, to prevent the treads from being activated without the presence of the user (or adult). But a hardware solution is still being considered. Jill noted, in June, that it could be “a few months away”.
There is no way to excuse the nature of what happened at the hands of a Peloton Tread, and the original response (which was quickly retracted) was not great.
“I want to be clear, though, Peloton made a mistake in our initial response to Consumer Product Safety Commission's request that we recall our Tread+ product.
We should have been more open to a productive dialogue with them from the outset. As a Members First organization, promptly stopping the sales of our products while we cooperated more closely with the CPSC was something we should have considered sooner.
For that, I apologize” - John Foley, Q3 FY21 Earnings Call
Jill noted that they estimate ~10% of the total tread userbase might be subject to a recall, but we will get more insight into that in August. These returns are open until November 2022, so the effects might linger for some time, with the largest impact likely to be shown in the upcoming quarter.
Peloton estimate that this will have a ~$165 million impacts on revenue next quarter.
“The Company also expects to incur additional costs which could include: Increases to the return reserves, Tread+ inventory write-downs, logistics costs associated with Member requests for refunds on Tread and Tread+, the cost to move the Tread+ for those that elect that option, subscription waiver costs of service, anticipated recall-related hardware development costs, and related legal and advisory fees.
Recall charges are based upon estimates associated with the Company's expected and historical consumer response rates” - Peloton Q3 FY21 10-Q Filing
However, the ability to remain objective is something I try hard to do. In my mind, after the initial aftermath, I felt that this would be a situation akin to the Nike sweatshops fiasco, or the Facebook ad boycott.
The media has to convert clicks and views, so will take anything worthy of discussion and run with it, so long as it stays current.
Despite how tragic the nature of this recall was, the reality is that the business will continue to move forward.
The most crucial concern of mine pertained to the brand, more so than any tangible balance sheet line item.
The initial management response was not perfect, with Foley initially disputing the claims before, a few days later, fessing up and taking ownership of what had taken place.
But the reality is that, should they not suffer too great a dent in their brand, the business would move on as normal.
It is my opinion that this will be the case. It will be an embarrassing skid mark on their history.
Whilst I did not buy any additional shares after the plunge, I did think it was a buying opportunity.
Shares fell as low as $80, before pulling back above $100 within a month. There was impairment to the near-term fundamentals, but nothing that appeared to be long-term.
Buy when others are fearful.
The New US Facility
In a slightly more positive light, Peloton committed to investing $400 million (announced May) into a new facility in Ohio, United States, which is expected to open sometime in 2023.
Pelton Output Park (as it shall be named) marks Peloton’s first domestic manufacturing plant.
This puts Peloton into a position where they can service US and Canadian customers with less supply chain risk stemming from logistical issues like port risk, capacity, and enable them to shave time off of their product development timelines. Something which has proved to be a thorn in their side over the last 12 to 15 months.
They no longer have to freight these products from Taiwan and can instead service the demand from domestic warehouses. The company are also expected to begin churning out Bikes from the Precor warehouses later this year.
“This doesn't mean that we're going to stop manufacturing in Taiwan. Both at our own facilities as well with contract partners. So again, we're thinking about the long term, and we really believe that the state-of-the-art manufacturing facility we're going to be able to build and the automation will allow us to be even more efficient and more scaled as we grow, which is really important as we think about the accessibility of our products and price points over time.” - Jill Woodworth, JP Morgan Conference
This is not something that is going to have a material influence for a few years, but it’s nice to see they are investing for the future.
Liquidity and Cash Flows
Peloton’s balance sheet, as of March 31st, was solid. After the $1 billion note issuance, the company held just over $2 billion in cash at that point in time, enough to cover their outstanding current obligations 1.6 times over.
The business also has an un-tapped $285 million credit facility.
The Precor acquisition, which closed in April, will see Peloton utilise ~$420 million of that cash balance in an all-cash deal. Expect to see the impact of that next time I revisit the company.
Even after this, the business is still comfortable, with their only debt (convertible) due to mature in 2026.
The conversion price on that debt (which holders can then convert into common equity) is $239.23, or a ~113% premium to today’s share price (as of June 14 Close).
Dilution doesn't appear to be an imminent concern but might occur prior to the maturity of that debt.
Peloton has generated just under $360 million in operational cash flow for the 9 months of FY21 thus far, and ~$191 million in free cash flow.
This quarter marked the first negative operational cash flow since August of 2019 (Peloton’s Q1 FY20).
Those outflows were obviously bolstered by the note issuance, tiding Peloton over and adding net cash inflow to the balance sheet.
Operating cash flows will tend to dwindle when net incomes depreciate, as have done at Peloton this quarter, after three consecutive positive earning quarters.
Moreover, the net negative impact of changes to working capital (-$224 million) also factored into that.
Whilst the business does have the cash to support its operations (represented on the balance sheet) with minimal outflows from its operating losses (~$114 million for YTD) I would not be surprised to see Peloton raise additional external funding within the next 6 to 12 months. Based on their current position.
Guidance for Q4 FY21
Guidance for Q4 highlights a lot of that pull forward that Peloton experienced in Q3, which management suggest was in the region of ~$125 million.
In addition to that, with the recent developments on the Tread side of the business, the outlook is a little less predictable.
Management is suggesting that the revenue impact of the Tread recalls will be ~$165 million.
This was broken down as $105 million from the impact of ceasing the Tread delivers during the quarter, an increase of $50 million to the return reserves from anticipated Tread returns from customers, and $10 million from subscription revenues as Peloton extend all-access subscriptions to Tread members for 3 months (waiving the fees basically).
Revenue guidance for Q4 was touted as $915 million for the quarter, which is reached will amount to $4 billion in annual sales. This includes ~$60 million from Precor revenues.
Jill noted, in the Q3 earnings call, that Bike sales were beginning to taper from the coronavirus highs. She acknowledged that they are expecting a return to the historical seasonality in those products.
“However, our unit sales remain significantly higher than pre-COVID levels. We expect Global Bike and Bike+ unit sales in Q4 fiscal '21 to be over 3x higher than they were in Q4 of fiscal '19, 2 years prior. This continued robust growth of Bike sales is the result of the benefits of our better, best Bike portfolio strategy, including our Bike price reduction last fall.” - Jill Woodworth, Q3 Earnings Call
Connected fitness subscriptions are expected to come in at 2.275 million, for net adds of 194,000, marking the lowest quarterly net adds since Q3 FY20 (March 2020 period). However, a great deal of this is the result of the pull forward in Q3, as well as the Tread incident.
The average net monthly connected fitness churn is expected to be under 0.85%, increased slightly from Q3 as a result of the seasonality often experienced during warmer climates in Peloton’s core markets, as well as subscription waivers from Tread members.
Gross margins are expected to remain at the 35% level, with connected fitness margin expected to slump further to 21%, and subscription to remain fairly consistent.
A great deal of this squeeze in connected fitness margin can be attributed to the logistic costs of the Tread recall. This should also be seen in the operating expenses too.
Elsewhere, the company have allocated an additional $15 million towards expedited shipping (on top of their $100 million originally allocated) for Q4.
Expedited shipping costs are not expected to be a meaningful expense as Peloton roll into FY22.
Marketing spend is expected to be heavily weighted towards Q4.
General and administrative expenses are expected to be greater than 20% of revenue for the quarter, as Peloton accelerate their systems and people investments in their supply chain and member support functions. Jill did note that they hope to be able to leverage these costs more efficiently in FY22.
R&D is expected to be close to 10% of revenue in Q4.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 will be ~$60 million (negative) which includes a negative $5 million in Precor adjusted EBITDA. The impact of the recall on Q4 was suggested to be $16 million on adjusted EBITDA.
“This all represents a revised guide for adjusted EBITDA of approximately $240 million for fiscal year '21. We have done our best to provide our current estimate of the impact to Q4, but obviously these impacts are subject to change.” - Jill Woodworth, Q3 Earnings Call
During the most recent Bank of America Conference, Jill highlights four key focus areas for the company looking forward in; connected fitness, market expansion, strength, and channels.
I would think that the Bike portfolio is the core focus right now, given the relatively halted progress on the Tread front.
Peloton has 2 million connected fitness subs, with a total sizeable market of 15 million (in their opinion) based on the markets they are currently in. This sizeable market should expand as they open in new markets, and increase the product portfolio.
The Tread product alone is a market that is 3 times bigger than the Bike.
Whilst there have been no announcements on the strength category, it was interesting for Jill to say it’s a core focus. That, along with earlier comments highlighted in this post, lead me to believe we may see a strength hardware product within the next year. Strength is another exercise group that can be done at home quite easily.
Market expansion is a focus. After the launch in Australia, we are yet to see the full extent of the growth there yet. Some long runways in terms of hardware adoption and digital subscriber growth are yet to come. As we know, Peloton is aiming to target 1 to 2 new markets each year, so we might see another market open up relatively soon.
The investments into capacity certainly show signs of their desire to stamp out a global footprint in the coming years.
Then channel, and this is a huge one. No longer a direct to consumer business, Peloton now can target commercial sales through their acquisition of Precor. This should allow Peloton to expand into hospitality, colleges, and a host of other new channels for their hardware and digital products.
Another channel might be corporate wellness programs. This was likely put on the back burner as the company faced capacity constraints and the insatiable demand from lockdown spending.
In the coming quarters, Jill noted that they plan to be:
“Working directly with health care providers because we do have the tools and the data that will allow them to better hopefully manage their premiums over time. So we're super excited about some partnerships we can do there. It's obviously been on our minds for many, many months. But in a supply-constrained world, these are things that we haven't been able to focus on until now.”
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the eventual deceleration in revenues as time passes, but that is neither here nor there, to me.
Despite the consistent number of ‘narrative-ending’ events that have taken place (another Treemore chart by the way) over the last few years, Peloton has continued to introduce new offerings, expand their subscriber base of both hardware and digital customers, open new markets, acquire new businesses, and extend their lead in the connected fitness space.
Whilst I would not be surprised to see Peloton raise additional capital at some point in the next few quarters, the fundamental position of the company looks strong.
What happens to the share price in the interim is less of a concern to me, than the continuance of their penetrative strategy.
There are a number of exciting growth runways and areas for reinvestment. It’s really a ‘watch this space’ position for me.
The Tread recalls, and subsequent impacts to the business, are not attractive, but they are non-recurring and don’t appear to pose a significant detriment to the business long term.
So long as they continue to execute, I will continue to hold.
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Lead Analyst at Occasio Capital Ltd
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